Ali K.Chishti, Editor In Chief, The Wire Pakistan
In a series of secret meetings held in undisclosed Middle Eastern locations, India and the Afghan Taliban are coming dangerously close to forming an alliance that could fundamentally alter the region’s dynamics. These quiet negotiations, carried out behind closed doors, have set off alarm bells in Islamabad. Senior military sources in Pakistan have expressed serious concerns about this development, and they have every reason to be worried.
The conversations between Indian representatives and Taliban officials, according to high-level intelligence sources, have revolved around India providing logistical support and crucial back-channel financing. The stakes are especially high as India has reportedly pledged emergency payments if the U.S. government—particularly under a Trump-like administration—halts financial aid to the Taliban. A senior officer from Pakistan’s security establishment shared that India’s willingness to act as a financial safety net for the Taliban regime is part of a broader strategy to minimize Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan. "India's playing a calculated game," he said. "They are positioning themselves as indispensable to the Taliban."
India’s strategic motivations are clear. By aligning itself with the Taliban, New Delhi aims to counter Pakistan’s foothold in Afghanistan while undermining China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the region. The fall of Ashraf Ghani’s government and the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 initially left India on the sidelines. Now, through these covert meetings, they are inching toward a formal relationship with the Taliban regime—despite their historical aversion to Taliban rule.
Pakistan’s intelligence community is alarmed. The financial and logistical support India is offering the Taliban is a game-changer, shifting the balance of power in a region where Islamabad has long held the upper hand. "The implications for Pakistan are dire," warned a senior officer. "If India steps in to fund the Taliban in the event of a U.S. pullout after Trump, it would make Afghanistan less reliant on Pakistan and other external players. We would be dealing with an empowered Taliban, backed by our eastern neighbor."
The revelations about back-channel financing are particularly worrisome. India’s offer to provide emergency payments in case of a financial crunch would allow the Taliban to maintain power even in the absence of U.S. support. Such financial independence would significantly reduce the Taliban’s reliance on Pakistan, a move that military officials here describe as a direct threat to Pakistan’s national security. "It’s not just about money," said one source. "India’s trying to get a strategic foothold in Afghanistan, and they’re doing it right under our nose."
Adding to the tension is India’s covert discussions with the Taliban on infrastructure development and trade routes that exclude Pakistan altogether. This bypassing of Pakistan not only hurts Islamabad economically but also threatens to create a geopolitical noose around the country. "The Taliban aren’t just negotiating in the shadows—they’re cutting Pakistan out," says a military insider. "If India succeeds in cementing these deals, they’ll have a physical and strategic presence in Afghanistan that Pakistan can do little to counter."
Pakistan has long feared the prospect of being encircled by hostile forces on both its eastern and western borders. The idea of an Indian presence in Afghanistan—whether through humanitarian projects, intelligence operations, or financial aid—is a nightmare scenario for Pakistan’s military planners. These meetings, with India cozying up to the Taliban, bring that fear one step closer to reality.
In response, Pakistan is already recalibrating its defense strategy, increasing surveillance along the Afghan border and intensifying intelligence efforts to track India’s movements in the region. "We’re not sitting idle," confirmed a senior intelligence officer. "Plans are underway to counter this emerging alliance between India and the Taliban, but it’s a complex and dangerous situation."
The stakes are incredibly high for Pakistan. An India-backed Taliban regime in Afghanistan could spell disaster for Islamabad’s regional aspirations, leaving Pakistan isolated and vulnerable.
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